JAMMU, Oct 13: The alliance of National Conference, Congress and Independents can win three out of four Rajya Sabha seats the elections for which are likely to be conducted by the Election Commission of India anytime after oath ceremony of the MLAs. The BJP will be safe on one seat even with 29 MLAs though its strength can rise to 34 if five MLAs are nominated before the Rajya Sabha elections.
Officials told that with 55 MLAs already supporting the Alliance, it will be able to win three Rajya Sabha seats while the BJP with 34 MLAs will safely get one seat on its own. Even with 29 MLAs, it can get one of the four seats.
In 2019, PDP-BJP alliance with 54 seats (PDP 28 and BJP 26) had won three seats (two PDP and one BJP) while fourth seat had gone to Ghulam Nabi Azad, former Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir who was with the Congress then with the support of NC and Congress, who had 27 MLAs (NC 15 and Congress 12). Four MLAs of smaller parties and Independents had supported Azad.
As per the past practices, the Election Commission issued three notifications for Rajya Sabha elections in Jammu and Kashmir. One election is held for two seats while two separate elections are held for one seat each. If the similar practice is followed, two seats on which separate elections will be held will go to the ruling Alliance which already has 55 MLAs with it. While two seats on which one election will be held will be equally divided among NC-led Alliance and the BJP.
As four Rajya Sabha seats from Jammu and Kashmir are vacant for the past over three and a half years, the Election Commission can issue notification for holding elections to them soon after oath ceremony of the MLAs is held which makes them eligible to cast their votes.
There is a possibility that the Union Home Ministry can recommend nomination of five MLAs to the Legislative Assembly to the Lieutenant Governor before the Rajya Sabha elections are held as this will ensure that the BJP is safe on at least one Rajya Sabha seat.
There were reports that National Conference president Dr Farooq Abdullah, who didn’t contest either Lok Sabha or Assembly elections, can be fielded by the party on one of the seats for Rajya Sabha elections.
The NC has 42 MLAs of its own while AAP with one MLA and five Independent MLAs from Jammu division have already extended support to the NC taking the party tally to 48. CPM MLA MY Tarigami is also with the Alliance while there are six Congress MLAs. Alliance has a total of 55 MLAs.
“It will be seen whether the National Conference leadership will leave one Rajya Sabha seat for the Congress which has just six MLAs as against 48 of the National Conference,” the political observers assert.
Last election to four seats of Rajya Sabha from Jammu and Kashmir was held in February 2015 when the then BJP-PDP alliance won three seats and NC-Congress one. Fayaz Ahmad Mir and Nazir Ahmad Laway (both PDP), Shamsher Singh Manhas (BJP) and Ghulam Nabi Azad, former Chief Minister of J&K and then in Congress were elected. BJP’s Chander Mohan Sharma had lost the election.
All these four Rajya Sabha members from Jammu and Kashmir completed their six years term in February 2021. Since then, there has been no elected MP from J&K in the Rajya Sabha in the absence of Assembly.
In 2015, PDP had 28 MLAs, BJP 26, National Conference 15, Congress 12, People’s Conference two and CPM and AIP one each. Rest were Independents.
From April 1994 to October 1996 also, there was no representative from Jammu and Kashmir in the Rajya Sabha. However, after the Assembly elections and formation of Government by Dr Farooq Abdullah-led National Conference in October 1996, Dr Karan Singh, Ghulam Nabi Azad, Saif-ud-Din Soz and Sharif-ud-Din Shariq were elected to the Rajya Sabha from J&K in November 1996.
Since November 1996 to February 2021, Jammu and Kashmir had representation in Rajya Sabha without any break. This was, however, for the first time in 2015 that the BJP won the Rajya Sabha seat from Jammu and Kashmir.
